Nigeria's economy is facing significant challenges due to the inconsistent tariff policies of US President Donald Trump and the resulting instability in global oil markets. According to Farouk Ahmed, CEO of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), the country's reliance on oil exports makes it vulnerable to fluctuations in crude oil prices.

The recent drop in oil prices from $73 to $60 per barrel in a single day has severely impacted Nigeria's revenue inflows. Ahmed noted that while lower petroleum product prices benefit consumers, the broader economic consequences are severe for Nigeria. The country's oil output has fallen to approximately 1.4 million barrels per day, further exacerbating the economic challenges.

The NMDPRA boss highlighted that the volatility in the global oil market has led to a downward trajectory in product pricing and crude oil pricing. Although lower prices benefit consumers, the overall impact on the economy is negative. Ahmed urged stakeholders to prepare for prolonged uncertainty in the oil sector, citing Trump's unpredictable policy decisions as a major contributor to market instability.

Imports of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) have plunged from 44.6 million liters per day in August 2024 to 14.7 million liters by April 13, 2025. However, local supply has risen 670% within the same period, with local plants delivering 26.2 million liters per day in early April. The Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals now meets about two-fifths of national demand.

Nigeria's oil output stands at 1.4 million barrels per day. The drop in oil price from $73 to $60 per barrel in a single day has significant implications. PMS imports have decreased substantially, while local supply has increased. Six licensed private and four public refineries produce 1.12 million barrels per day, with the Dangote single train complex refining 650,000 bpd.

The ongoing instability in global oil markets poses significant challenges for Nigeria's economy. As the country relies heavily on oil exports, the unpredictable nature of Trump's policies and the resulting fluctuations in crude oil prices will likely continue to impact Nigeria's revenue inflows. Stakeholders must prepare for prolonged uncertainty in the oil sector.